Monday, February 11, 2008
A 2008 recount?
Imagine the scene... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269002843257513.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries.
Friday, February 8, 2008
POLLS
The vote tallies are in:
The internets are too confusing for MM to blog.
McCain and Thompson's wives are the ho**est.
Its a Huckabust.
Corecon has nominated Newt as its prime VP candidate.
Since Romney put his campaign on "hold" 5 of us were wrong to think that Huckabee would drop out before him.
The internets are too confusing for MM to blog.
McCain and Thompson's wives are the ho**est.
Its a Huckabust.
Corecon has nominated Newt as its prime VP candidate.
Since Romney put his campaign on "hold" 5 of us were wrong to think that Huckabee would drop out before him.
CPAC Conference and Beyond
Reluctancy was not a virtue in the Democratic party in 2004, but it will be alive and well in 2012 according to my take on Mitt Romney bowing out.
If John Kerry were a savvy politician he would have realized his chances against the incumbent and thrown Dean to the wolves (or at least allowed him to).
But a smart and savvy Republican candidate realizes the benefit of dropping out now. Romney now has two big fat aces in his back pocket:
The Ace of Diamonds: Romney leaves the race with the aura of being the strongest conservative in the field; AND
The Ace of Spades: By the numbers and figures TODAY, McCain is going to lose. I said it. Democrats are VOTING 2 to 1 over Republicans. Even in states where the delegates don't count they are leading. The base is NOT enthusiastic. And Independants are siding with Obama and Hillary more than McCain or even Paul combined. This is drastically different than 2000 and 2004. Romney realizes that a loss in 2008 against Hillabama is going to Kerry-ize him.
If he drops out now, he retains his credibility for a big run at the age of 64 in 2012 against the incumbent Demobama. If he drops out now and McCain wins, he still maintains his conservative aura, and his youth for a potential candidacy in 2016 at the age of 68.
The only question now is: what is he going to do until then?
MORE IMPORTANTLY...RON PAUL'S CPAC SPEECH WAS AMAZING...
I'd paraphrase it for you, but I HOPE that you take 25 minutes out of your day to watch the beacon of the
Part 1:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nWdtMftHTtQ
Part 2:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GMtjgMTYE1Q
Part 3:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=2SblfSHWHnM
If John Kerry were a savvy politician he would have realized his chances against the incumbent and thrown Dean to the wolves (or at least allowed him to).
But a smart and savvy Republican candidate realizes the benefit of dropping out now. Romney now has two big fat aces in his back pocket:
The Ace of Diamonds: Romney leaves the race with the aura of being the strongest conservative in the field; AND
The Ace of Spades: By the numbers and figures TODAY, McCain is going to lose. I said it. Democrats are VOTING 2 to 1 over Republicans. Even in states where the delegates don't count they are leading. The base is NOT enthusiastic. And Independants are siding with Obama and Hillary more than McCain or even Paul combined. This is drastically different than 2000 and 2004. Romney realizes that a loss in 2008 against Hillabama is going to Kerry-ize him.
If he drops out now, he retains his credibility for a big run at the age of 64 in 2012 against the incumbent Demobama. If he drops out now and McCain wins, he still maintains his conservative aura, and his youth for a potential candidacy in 2016 at the age of 68.
The only question now is: what is he going to do until then?
MORE IMPORTANTLY...RON PAUL'S CPAC SPEECH WAS AMAZING...
I'd paraphrase it for you, but I HOPE that you take 25 minutes out of your day to watch the beacon of the
Part 1:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nWdtMftHTtQ
Part 2:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GMtjgMTYE1Q
Part 3:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=2SblfSHWHnM
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Mitt Outney
Romney is out. Dennis Prager just reported it.
You can watch his speech RIGHT NOW (12:50pm) at cspan.org or listen on krla 870.
You can watch his speech RIGHT NOW (12:50pm) at cspan.org or listen on krla 870.
Foreign Correspondent: Sandra Day McCainabee
Romney's plan to win over conservatives failed because they realized that he became a conservative yesterday and may not be one tomorrow. Instead, they voted for the candidates that THEY wanted.
The Huckaboom staged a comeback on Tuesday. McCain is obviously in the driver's seat, but this 2-man race rhetoric needed to be put to bed. Now I am hoping for the McCain-Huck ticket.
Also, can anyone explain the vitriol against McCain? Here's my view - GOP voters have a lot of different priorities, but the one thing that unites them is a STRONG DEFENSE (see the 1980, 1984 and 2004 elections). They also like a person they can respect who has lived the values he preaches. Reagan fell into this category; so does McCain. (Dole did too, but there were some charisma issues there). A strong foreign policy candidate (McCain) with good character is what unites the party. He may be less anti-tax than his predecessors, but his critique of pork barrel spending is actually refreshing. Do I agree with him on every issue? No. And his support for the immigration bill was a tough pill to swallow. The good news is, despite its bipartisan support, the bill still failed.
Voters are connecting with McCain. He is even better for the country now than he was back in 2000 when he perhaps should have won the GOP nod.
The Huckaboom staged a comeback on Tuesday. McCain is obviously in the driver's seat, but this 2-man race rhetoric needed to be put to bed. Now I am hoping for the McCain-Huck ticket.
Also, can anyone explain the vitriol against McCain? Here's my view - GOP voters have a lot of different priorities, but the one thing that unites them is a STRONG DEFENSE (see the 1980, 1984 and 2004 elections). They also like a person they can respect who has lived the values he preaches. Reagan fell into this category; so does McCain. (Dole did too, but there were some charisma issues there). A strong foreign policy candidate (McCain) with good character is what unites the party. He may be less anti-tax than his predecessors, but his critique of pork barrel spending is actually refreshing. Do I agree with him on every issue? No. And his support for the immigration bill was a tough pill to swallow. The good news is, despite its bipartisan support, the bill still failed.
Voters are connecting with McCain. He is even better for the country now than he was back in 2000 when he perhaps should have won the GOP nod.
Hillabill and CPAC
CPAC starts today. I think we should attend next year.
All FOUR (YES 4 Candidates) are set to speak at the great conservative convention.
Last year McCain was booed and Coulter called Edwards a f*gg*t. Look for more great antics this year with Paul and McCain's speeches.
A few days ago they (the ACU and campaign advisors) were more set on timeslots, and they seem to be backing off on setting an absolute time for appearances. The info that I've gathered from blogs, candidate websites, and news articles point to these times:
Romney is set to speak at 12:15 today (R/2/7/08).
McCain is set to speak at 02:30 today (R/2/7/8).
Dr. Paul is set to speak at 04:30 today (R/2/7/08.
Huckabee is set to speak at 09:00 am on Saturday (R/2/9/08).
I think that cspan.org is going to host the speeches on its website. Nothing is showing up on its TV schedule and I doubt that Fox News will carry over the daily car chase.
Cheney is supposed to speak at 10am today so I will check and see if it is viewable via any website.
Anyone think its interesting that Hillary *lent* her campaign money, only to get it back over the next 48 hours? I wonder if she is allowed to take points on that? Fox News eluded to the idea that it was a tactic to appear in need of money, so that people would donate more of their hard earned money to her campaign. I guess they'll get it back in entitlements if she's elected.
All FOUR (YES 4 Candidates) are set to speak at the great conservative convention.
Last year McCain was booed and Coulter called Edwards a f*gg*t. Look for more great antics this year with Paul and McCain's speeches.
A few days ago they (the ACU and campaign advisors) were more set on timeslots, and they seem to be backing off on setting an absolute time for appearances. The info that I've gathered from blogs, candidate websites, and news articles point to these times:
Romney is set to speak at 12:15 today (R/2/7/08).
McCain is set to speak at 02:30 today (R/2/7/8).
Dr. Paul is set to speak at 04:30 today (R/2/7/08.
Huckabee is set to speak at 09:00 am on Saturday (R/2/9/08).
I think that cspan.org is going to host the speeches on its website. Nothing is showing up on its TV schedule and I doubt that Fox News will carry over the daily car chase.
Cheney is supposed to speak at 10am today so I will check and see if it is viewable via any website.
Anyone think its interesting that Hillary *lent* her campaign money, only to get it back over the next 48 hours? I wonder if she is allowed to take points on that? Fox News eluded to the idea that it was a tactic to appear in need of money, so that people would donate more of their hard earned money to her campaign. I guess they'll get it back in entitlements if she's elected.
The Presidency doesn't matter
We need to focus on the legislative elections and see how things look. Any place we can go to get a breakdown of the legislative races? If we can recover some of the legislative losses of '06, we stand better prepared to manage the Demos and any quasi-Republican who may win the WH.
If we suffer bigger legislative losses than what we did in '06, we are in real trouble.
Anyone want to quit the presidential politics and focus on the really important races?
If we suffer bigger legislative losses than what we did in '06, we are in real trouble.
Anyone want to quit the presidential politics and focus on the really important races?
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Is McCain the mathematical victor?
NO!
Here are the following dates and delegates up for grabs in the Republican primary:
February 9 – KA (39), LA (47), WA (40)
February 12 – MD (37), VA (63), D.C. (19)
February 19 – WI (92)
March 4 – OH (88), RI (20), TX (140), VT (17)
March 11 – MS (39)
April 22 – PA (74)
May 6 – NC (69), IN (57)
May 17 – HI (20)
May 20 – KY (45), OR (30)
June 3 – SD (27)
July 12 – NE (33)
I suggest (with hat in hand) that you guys use CNN rather than Fox to look at the analysis. Fox takes way long to load and the real analysis is difficult to find or absent.
OR just look at mine below:
John McCain has an estimated 604 delegates.
Romney has 244 and Huckabust (see Poll) has 187. (source: Real Clear Politics)
Therefore, McCain is about a 2.6 to 1 favorite to Romney right now and he needs 587 delegates to declare victory (whatever that means, maybe MM could explain if he'd join the blog). Romney is about a 1.3 to 1 favorite over Huckabee. So the figures are more like 2.45 to 1.15 to 1.
There are 996 delegates left up for grabs (337 within the next 14 days).
If that 2.45 to 1.15 to 1 stat is applied to the remaining delegates, McCain will have 590 more delagates to Romney's 230 to Huckabee's 176 delegates by July 12.
This means that McCain will end up with 1194, Romney will end up with 474, and Huckabee will end up with 313.
That's a pretty close margin. If Romney gets a significant bump or if Huckabee throws his support behind McCain, things could drastically change.
Although the media is pushing to declare McCain the clear victor, by this margin, anything can happen. So, again, don't buy the hype.
Here are the following dates and delegates up for grabs in the Republican primary:
February 9 – KA (39), LA (47), WA (40)
February 12 – MD (37), VA (63), D.C. (19)
February 19 – WI (92)
March 4 – OH (88), RI (20), TX (140), VT (17)
March 11 – MS (39)
April 22 – PA (74)
May 6 – NC (69), IN (57)
May 17 – HI (20)
May 20 – KY (45), OR (30)
June 3 – SD (27)
July 12 – NE (33)
I suggest (with hat in hand) that you guys use CNN rather than Fox to look at the analysis. Fox takes way long to load and the real analysis is difficult to find or absent.
OR just look at mine below:
John McCain has an estimated 604 delegates.
Romney has 244 and Huckabust (see Poll) has 187. (source: Real Clear Politics)
Therefore, McCain is about a 2.6 to 1 favorite to Romney right now and he needs 587 delegates to declare victory (whatever that means, maybe MM could explain if he'd join the blog). Romney is about a 1.3 to 1 favorite over Huckabee. So the figures are more like 2.45 to 1.15 to 1.
There are 996 delegates left up for grabs (337 within the next 14 days).
If that 2.45 to 1.15 to 1 stat is applied to the remaining delegates, McCain will have 590 more delagates to Romney's 230 to Huckabee's 176 delegates by July 12.
This means that McCain will end up with 1194, Romney will end up with 474, and Huckabee will end up with 313.
That's a pretty close margin. If Romney gets a significant bump or if Huckabee throws his support behind McCain, things could drastically change.
Although the media is pushing to declare McCain the clear victor, by this margin, anything can happen. So, again, don't buy the hype.
Did the proud son of Massachusetts vote?
The only reason I'm posting this is because Ron Paul is probably still going to remain in the race. If any of you have followed Ron Paul as nearly as closely as I have, you should be noticing that McCain and Huckabee are really starting to adopt some of the Paulinian ideas. They do it in a more attractive fashion, but the origin is clear, especially in Huckabee's speech last night from Arkansas.
At a West Virginia rally yesterday Paul, Romney, and Huckabee all spoke.
Paul introduced an interesting idea for the war on terror (notice no capital letters).
Hint: Letters of Marque for you history majors...
You can read about his idea here:
http://deathby1000papercuts.blogspot.com/2008/02/ron-paul-speaks-at-wv-gop-convention.html
At a West Virginia rally yesterday Paul, Romney, and Huckabee all spoke.
Paul introduced an interesting idea for the war on terror (notice no capital letters).
Hint: Letters of Marque for you history majors...
You can read about his idea here:
http://deathby1000papercuts.blogspot.com/2008/02/ron-paul-speaks-at-wv-gop-convention.html
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Don't buy the hype!
This "vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain" is just as stupid as "a vote for Nader is a vote for Gore."
Al Gore didn't win...not because Ralph Nader ran, but because many liberal voters felt that the issues of green technology and increasing the scope of regulatory agencies were paraamount to the idea of a "lockbox".
Gore could have heeded those voices and attracted those voters by offering his own positions and plans on those issues. Instead, he cowered into agreement with nearly everything G.W. said in the debates.
"Electability" is an absolute distraction. If you vote because of a candidate's electability, jump the bandwagon, or vote out of fear that another candidate may win, you are ignoring your own ability to think independantly.
What McCain or Romney have to do to win the election, should have absolutely nothing to do with who you vote for. As a conservative, you must decide what conservative issues are most important to you and which candidate espouses them.
Does the party need to come together behind its nominee? Yes, after the convention! Do the voters need to agree with everything that candidate proposes? No.
We won't be voting in the primary until March. Let's leave it that way. If you like Huckabee, vote for him. If you agree with Paul's ideas, vote for him. If you are disgruntled by the frontrunner and miss Fred Thompson, Jimmy! WRITE HIM IN! Your vote for any of these candidates sends a message and means a lot more than causing another candidate to win.
I think we can all agree that we will support the Republican nominee over either Hilladonk or Barri.
So for now, don't buy the hype.
Al Gore didn't win...not because Ralph Nader ran, but because many liberal voters felt that the issues of green technology and increasing the scope of regulatory agencies were paraamount to the idea of a "lockbox".
Gore could have heeded those voices and attracted those voters by offering his own positions and plans on those issues. Instead, he cowered into agreement with nearly everything G.W. said in the debates.
"Electability" is an absolute distraction. If you vote because of a candidate's electability, jump the bandwagon, or vote out of fear that another candidate may win, you are ignoring your own ability to think independantly.
What McCain or Romney have to do to win the election, should have absolutely nothing to do with who you vote for. As a conservative, you must decide what conservative issues are most important to you and which candidate espouses them.
Does the party need to come together behind its nominee? Yes, after the convention! Do the voters need to agree with everything that candidate proposes? No.
We won't be voting in the primary until March. Let's leave it that way. If you like Huckabee, vote for him. If you agree with Paul's ideas, vote for him. If you are disgruntled by the frontrunner and miss Fred Thompson, Jimmy! WRITE HIM IN! Your vote for any of these candidates sends a message and means a lot more than causing another candidate to win.
I think we can all agree that we will support the Republican nominee over either Hilladonk or Barri.
So for now, don't buy the hype.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
More Clinton charades
See the following article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120191002786436761.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks. At the very least, there should be a way for this information to be timely released.
It is this type of behavior by the Clintons, both Bill and Billary, that drives me insane and leads me to dislike who they are and what they stand for. We talk about restoring respect for the U.S. with this next election (not that I necessarily think Bush has been all bad), but there is no way that will occur with the Clintons running the show again.
It is this type of behavior by the Clintons, both Bill and Billary, that drives me insane and leads me to dislike who they are and what they stand for. We talk about restoring respect for the U.S. with this next election (not that I necessarily think Bush has been all bad), but there is no way that will occur with the Clintons running the show again.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Why MM doesn't "blog"
Old world focus? Detestation for technology? Email is good enough.
Clarity on the subject is welcome!
Clarity on the subject is welcome!
Has JC found his nominee?
As in brother Jim and the big guy...
Brother Jimmy has linked us to the National Review article by Mark Levin which can be found here:
Our foreign correspondent's response is posted in the comments section.
Brother Jimmy has linked us to the National Review article by Mark Levin which can be found here:
Our foreign correspondent's response is posted in the comments section.