Is McCain the mathematical victor?

NO!

Here are the following dates and delegates up for grabs in the Republican primary:

February 9 – KA (39), LA (47), WA (40)
February 12 – MD (37), VA (63), D.C. (19)
February 19 – WI (92)
March 4 – OH (88), RI (20), TX (140), VT (17)
March 11 – MS (39)
April 22 – PA (74)
May 6 – NC (69), IN (57)
May 17 – HI (20)
May 20 – KY (45), OR (30)
June 3 – SD (27)
July 12 – NE (33)

I suggest (with hat in hand) that you guys use CNN rather than Fox to look at the analysis. Fox takes way long to load and the real analysis is difficult to find or absent.

OR just look at mine below:

John McCain has an estimated 604 delegates.
Romney has 244 and Huckabust (see Poll) has 187. (source: Real Clear Politics)

Therefore, McCain is about a 2.6 to 1 favorite to Romney right now and he needs 587 delegates to declare victory (whatever that means, maybe MM could explain if he'd join the blog). Romney is about a 1.3 to 1 favorite over Huckabee. So the figures are more like 2.45 to 1.15 to 1.

There are 996 delegates left up for grabs (337 within the next 14 days).
If that 2.45 to 1.15 to 1 stat is applied to the remaining delegates, McCain will have 590 more delagates to Romney's 230 to Huckabee's 176 delegates by July 12.

This means that McCain will end up with 1194, Romney will end up with 474, and Huckabee will end up with 313.

That's a pretty close margin. If Romney gets a significant bump or if Huckabee throws his support behind McCain, things could drastically change.

Although the media is pushing to declare McCain the clear victor, by this margin, anything can happen. So, again, don't buy the hype.