Reluctancy was not a virtue in the Democratic party in 2004, but it will be alive and well in 2012 according to my take on Mitt Romney bowing out.
If John Kerry were a savvy politician he would have realized his chances against the incumbent and thrown Dean to the wolves (or at least allowed him to).
But a smart and savvy Republican candidate realizes the benefit of dropping out now. Romney now has two big fat aces in his back pocket:
The Ace of Diamonds: Romney leaves the race with the aura of being the strongest conservative in the field; AND
The Ace of Spades: By the numbers and figures TODAY, McCain is going to lose. I said it. Democrats are VOTING 2 to 1 over Republicans. Even in states where the delegates don't count they are leading. The base is NOT enthusiastic. And Independants are siding with Obama and Hillary more than McCain or even Paul combined. This is drastically different than 2000 and 2004. Romney realizes that a loss in 2008 against Hillabama is going to Kerry-ize him.
If he drops out now, he retains his credibility for a big run at the age of 64 in 2012 against the incumbent Demobama. If he drops out now and McCain wins, he still maintains his conservative aura, and his youth for a potential candidacy in 2016 at the age of 68.
The only question now is: what is he going to do until then?
MORE IMPORTANTLY...RON PAUL'S CPAC SPEECH WAS AMAZING...
I'd paraphrase it for you, but I HOPE that you take 25 minutes out of your day to watch the beacon of the
Part 1:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=nWdtMftHTtQ
Part 2:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GMtjgMTYE1Q
Part 3:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=2SblfSHWHnM
3 comments:
Ron Paul is leading a revolution that will set the conservative movement for the next 50 years.
I don't think McCain is a sure loss. What we are witnessing may be some apathy for the Republican ticket, but there remains considerable time between now and November. With McCain as the front-runner and likely winner (despite Huckabust's victories yesterday), the Republican ticket starts to take shape.
This contrasts with the Demos, where they are in an exciting race, but because no one has pulled away, there is mounting friction between the two. Maybe the Republican party is apathetic, but the Demos are clearly divided. Read any report of the polls and each candidate pulls the same group in support. Men/women, old/young, rich/poor, black/white ... each candidate divides and does not show the crossover within their own party to pull it out. The risk there is that only Billary or Osama can win the nomination, and for the one who loses, a legitimate question exists as to whether all his/her supporters immediately jump ship to the other side. There are fundamental differences between each of the two Demo candidates and their supporters are strong supporters, not weak ones.
What does this mean for the Republicans? First, they need to come together and realize they are more effective speaking with one voice rather than criticizing each other and showing fraction. It also shows how powerful of a decision the VP choice will be. In this respect, McCain can easily reach across lines within the conservative community to generate support. He can find someone who speaks well on the issues with which he struggles and does not command "base" support.
Let's not forget that McCain is a big cross-over candidate who has voted all over the place. I think he is fairly consistent (as consistent as one can expect) on the issues, but he is not a Republican crony (a good thing for winning general elections). This bodes well for Republicans in November.
I read a WSJ articles from Pat Toomey (Club for Growth president) where he articulated different VP candidates: Gramm, Sanford, Forbes. Not bad thinking and not bad suggestions if you like a conservative agenda, especially from an economic standpoint where McCain is weak and needs guidance and support. I have to agree with Toomey that the VP choice may be a real clincher in this race to motivate that strong base of support that resides within the Republican party.
Of course, 4 more years of Billary may motivate the base like nothing else, too...
Good analysis. I disagree as to the differences between Obama and Hillary. I think its worse for those two to stick around and bicker than it is for Huckabee and Paul to stay in the race to re-shape party ideals, debate pro-conservative ideas, and to take the pressure off of McCain at least for a few months. Hillary and Obama are so much alike on policy (other than healthcare) and this is Obama's problem since he speaks in generalities, BUT it also shows that they are merely fighting out of selfish reasons. Huck and Paul and McCain are very different.
Could Romney throw his delegates to Huckabee and swing the race?
As to the VP candidates:
Gramm is too special interest
Sanford is dull...
He was on Colbert a few weeks ago...
http://www.truveo.com/Colbert-Report-Better-Know-A-Governor-Mark/id/1482412457
Very funny: "You are a manilla envelope glued to a beige wall."
Pence has white hair so he doesn't play. He and McCain visited Iraq together and toured the site where over 60 people were blown to pieces. He was protected by 100 armed soldiers in armor plated hummers as well as several helicopters traveling above him. How did that feel to him?..."Like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime." Pence and McCain seem to be smelling each other out but comments like these will be hard to put to rest. Toomey's C4G has been an avid supporter of Pence in the past.
Forbes would be interesting. He and McCain differ heavily on tax reform, but it may be the needed boost for independants and fiscal conservatives that McCain needs.
McCain really needs to wait and see who the Dem nominee is. THat's why it's good to keep Huckabee and Paul in the race, while this wait time goes by. If it's Obama, McCain needs to pick up the base and independants. If it's Hilary, that may be (as sonny said) enough to get the base out to vote.
Post a Comment